That LibDem dilemma in full

IF (Lib–Lab deal) –> 100% reliance on assorted Nats and recalcitrant backbenchers –> Government falls without enacting anything significant –> Tory majority within six months –> Full enactment of Tory manifesto

IF (Minority Tory government) –> Tory extremes stymied in short-term –> (Lib–Lab opposition brings government down, takes blame as ‘irresponsible in time of crisis’) OR (Cameron goes for dissolution at time to suit Tories) –> Tory majority within a year –> Full enactment of Tory manifesto

IF (Lib–Con coalition deal) –> (Tory extremes stymied in short-term) AND (Small number of key LibDem priorities enacted in short term) AND [?]

There’s likely to be a whole load of flak flying the LibDems’ way in the coming days, months and years, especially from the “progressive left”. I suggest they accept no criticism that begins without unpicking the puzzle above – one that the election result set them. That [?] might include the implosion of the party. It might also include the large-scale loss of anti-Conservative tactical voters in the North and Scotland, or the gain of anti-Labour tactical voters in the South, or both. But it might just include major changes to the way we elect representatives to both Houses of Parliament. Our major political parties are stuck fighting for the perception of occupying a bland, but pernicious, centre ground. Voting reform (AV is just one essential baby-step) is the only way to unlock the system, to set them all free to properly represent their constituencies.

It reads to me like Clegg has bet the house on electoral reform. His coalition deal, for all its faults, was worth the risk. Maybe.

I wrote a longer, more speculative piece on this before the coalition deal was announced, at Liberal Conspiracy.